The British monarch is often thought to be purely ceremonial but they do retain certain “Royal Prerogatives” like the right to declare war and deploy troops. Most are exercised by Ministers on their behalf or otherwise by them on the advice of Ministers. Up until 2011, they also had the sole right to prorogue Parliament and call General Elections at any time within its 5 year term. This gave the Prime Minister the opportunity to ask for an election at a time most favorable to them.
The Fixed Term Parliaments Act then established, as a term for the 2010 coalition government, a strict 5 year periods between General Elections to stop this abuse of the democratic system. Boris found this a bit of a downer so he abolished the Fixed Term Parliament Act in 2022, a rare case of Parliament handing back powers to the Crown! So the country is back to speculating on the exact date more than a year before the parliamentary term is up.
There is increased betting on a June 2024 election following the Chancellor’s (finance minister’s) “Autumn Statement”. This is part of the Budget making process and sets out plans for taxation from the start of the financial year the following April and other changes, e.g. to benefits, that might need to be legislated to come into effect in April. The headlines include a reduction in employee’s National Insurance Contributions from 12% to 10% of income in a certain range. There will also be increases in the National living wage. For many lower/middle income workers the will mean a few pounds extra in their pay from April. There are also some changes to welfare like very active work seeking or loss which will provide red meat for their right wing supporters. This is being touted as a “give away” budget. Chancellor backs business and rewards workers to get Britain growing
For a British Prime Minister, selecting a date is back to a fine art. The latest an election has to be held is January 28, 2025. That would put the Tories at (more of) a disadvantage. Their voters tend to be older and there is the risk of bad weather lowering turnout of that group. There is also the peculiarity of the British electoral register which runs from each February based on residence at the end of the prior September. Put crudely long term elderly residents are more likely to become permanent non-voters in the intervening year and a quarter, reducing a carefully nurtured Conservative base. That date would also mean campaigning over the Christmas and New Year holiday period.
Hanging on that date looks like you are waiting for something to turn up so we should be looking at the best time for Sunak to go. October is sometimes favored as it would be reasonable weather and your party will aim to get extra publicity from its annual conference. That still has the drawback of being pretty late in the Parliament. You then have the problems of avoiding the main school vacation times at Easter and July/September depending on the region.
Unkind commentators have speculated that ex-PM (now Lord) David Cameron has been appointed Foreign Secretary in order to run the country and leave Sunak free to get through an important trade treaty with India. This of course has nothing to do with his wife’s interests in her father’s businesses in that country. The timescale to get that through would allow it to pass by late Spring.
The Budget in March will of course repeat the proposals as a reminder of the Tories’ beneficence. The NIC reductions and the increase in the National Minimum Wage and benefits which also come into effect in April will give an increase in income for many. (Most employers who pay above the national minimum adjust their pay rates up to reflect the change.)
So for an incumbent government hoping to exploit the “feel good” factor from these increases, it is good to get the election over fairly quickly before the downsides become apparent. There is a risk that the hangover from the economic stimulus around the Coronation may show an economic downturn later in 2024. The increases will not fully go through the pay packets or benefit payments until the first week in May. Calling the election then would mean it would be held a minimum of 5 weeks after so we are looking at early June. May salary or benefit payments will again be a bit more because the financial year starts on April 5.
Will this help Sunak stay in 10 Downing Street? Judging by the latest Ipsos poll (see above), he has an uphill struggle to close a 46%-25% gap. A major caveat of course. The relative ratings are likely to narrow as the election approaches. Labour would face a turn-out problem if the poll ratings were so far apart to lead their voters to think it was a shoe-in. It is quite possible that there will be a “non-aggression pact” between the Liberal Democrats and the Greens in some constituencies. Liberal Democrat support is quite “lumpy” in its distribution so in many Tory held seats, they are in second place in areas like the West Country. We then have the complicating factors of the Welsh and Scottish Nationalists and the Northern Irish parties. So at this stage it is not possible to predict with any confidence the numbers of MPs each party will get.
Sunak is also up against the typical sentiment at this stage in a party’s rule “you’ve had enough time to screw things up, time to give someone else a go!”. If there is one thing the Tories have not been afraid of is stabbing their leader in their back. To recap the last 13 years’ PMs:
2010 David Cameron leader of the largest party but has no overall majority. Economic crisis precludes holding another election so forms coalition with the Liberal Democrats. Recovery means he gains an overall majority in 2015. Holds Brexit referendum to placate his right wing but it passes and he resigns.
2016 Theresa May takes power pledging “Brexit means Brexit” but nobody knew what she meant, let alone her. Eventually forced out by extreme Brexiteers for who her Brexit deal was not what they meant by Brexit.
2019 Boris Johnson, everyone’s favorite [/s] blond, New York born buffoon bus enthusiast. A Boris Bus can either refer to the ghastly “New Routemaster” bus he foisted on London as Mayor or the Brexit campaign bus plastered with lies abut an NHS bonus if we left. Eventually thrown under the bus for misleading Parliament about parties being held in10 Downing Street during COVID lockdowns.
2022 Liz Truss installed as Prime Minister by the Queen at Balmoral on September 6. Elizabeth II departs this mortal coil on September 8. Liz Truss departs Downing Street on October 25 after 50 days everyone would rather forget.
2022 (October 25) Rishi Sunak becomes Charles III’s first Prime Minister. He has exceeded Liz Truss;s time in the post. Conservative Party rules allow for a Leadership to be called for by a certain number of Tory MPs after they have been in post for a year. Given most are either scrambling for a safe seat after boundary changers, desperately trying to keep their majority or “networking” to get a good job after they lose next year- there is not much enthusiasm for yet another new face in Number 10.
As Chancellor under Boris Johnson, he attempted to revive the hospitality industry after a COVID lockdown with his “Eat out to help out” campaign which subsidized the cost of meals. Sunak even promoted this by serving in a restaurant in a tight shirt to show what a fine figurine he is compared to Boris. Unfortunately it’s been pointed out at the formal Inquiry into the conduct of the pandemic that it may not have been a good idea to encourage people to go to an enclosed space with strangers when the purpose of going required you to remove a mask. Getting an election in before the Inquiry report is published is a further motivation to go earlier.
We are almost at the same position as 1964. Churchill beat Labour in 1951 which led to successive, if scandal ridden at times, Conservative administrations. Their popularity was then in large part due to the relaxation of post-war austerity and the economic and scientific progress that followed. The slogan at the 1964 election called for an end to “13 years of Tory misrule”. Plus ça change!